I have been so busy working with portfolios and research. I really have had no time to write a letter to our clients. My goals are to express our views, but time doesn't always allow for such expression. Ultimately, our views are expressed in the composition of your portfolios. I have been immersed in various research and hopefully that research will produce future long time rewards for our clients. What follows is a letter, not yet reviewed in full, but still, after sitting on my desk for 5 weeks, at least I can deliver some thoughts to our clients.
May 12, 2005
We appreciate the continued confidence you are placing in our firm. Our intent
is to always handle your investments with care, diligence and competence. This
note will identify our current investment and portfolio thoughts. Please visit
our website www.rbcpa.com for continued updates. If you do not have access to
the web, please just call. We could always fax or mail you our recent writings.
If mid term interest rates rise, fixed income investments will fall in value.
Please keep in mind that 10 year rates are relatively unchanged since Mr.
Greenspan has started raising short-term rates. Over this same period, the
discount rate has risen from 2.50% to 4.00%. We do not pretend to know where
rates are going. With that said, we continue to focus on shorter-term durations
and also focus on bonds of high credit quality. We will not time the market. Our
fixed income exposure is at the lowest levels since our inception. You will
notice that our fixed income components are traded in a more frequent manner
than our core investments. This frequent trading of our fixed income investments
is based on several reasons:
A. We see income opportunities elsewhere. This is often based on pricing
and our interpretation of value.
B. We often buy fixed income components as a temporary position. Typically
a fixed income investment will be sold in an effort to reallocate capital.
We have reduced our allocation to petroleum during this run up of oil prices. We
were not comfortable with the current valuations of our oil holdings. We totally
eliminated our long time position of Occidental Petroleum (OXY) during 2005. We
would not be surprised to see OXY as a core holding once again in the future. We
like the company, along with its management.
We are focused on a handful of companies. These companies often have strong
fundamental financial structures. The companies often pay a dividend. We attempt
to invest in companies where we trust the management. Often but not always, if
our views of management turn negative, we will sell our position.
Currently, approximately 50% of our entire typical portfolio is made up of about
10 companies. If you would like to discuss our reasons for ownership, or any of
your views on theses companies, please just let us know. When we invest in
common stocks, we are typically long-term investors. We do not believe that we
can predict short-term price movements of a company. Historically, we have
bought companies during a period falling stock prices. Historically the price
continues to go down during our “accumulation stage.” This is a text book value
investor scenario of buying on bad news, or falling prices. Our typical
allocation to common stocks is at its highest point since our inception.
We like to understand the fundamental aspects of a company we invest in. We like
to project future earnings, cash flows and business continuity. We like to tear
apart company’s financial statements. Much of this type of analysis is currently
available on our website. We realize that our analysis is ever changing and we
attempt to adjust to these changes. Generally the process is an adjustment of
our mid-term to long-term valuations of these companies.
We continue to carry precious metals as a small part of most portfolios. Our
precious metals allocations are also near our historic lows. This allocation is
based on interpretation of value. The contrarian philosophy in our investment
discipline has caused us to retreat from our previous overweight position in
precious metals.
We often study the financials of a company extensively. We look to find
potential areas of concern in the financials. We use our accounting background
to attempt to formulate our financial statements analysis. We often continually
look for errors in our analysis and our interpretations of value. We are not at
all embarrassed or ashamed to admit errors.
Although investing with us has generally provided positive returns in a
consistent fashion over the last 10 years, we are not immune to losses. We do
not view portfolio declines as broken investing. We often view declines in
prices of companies as a welcome event. While declines occur, your portfolio may
be guilty of lack of performance, as well as generating negative returns. When
this occurs our firms revenues will also decline.
I am currently reading a book to my 6 year old son. The book is about forest
fires. The book explains how forest fires are often caused by nature. The book
explains that natural forest fires are actually a fertilizer for future growth.
We view value investing is a similar view.
We ask that our clients judge our performance over the long term. If you worked
with us since 1995, you will recall that our approach to investing, as well as
our philosophies, have not shifted over the years. We consider long term
investing to be a 5-year or longer period. We plan on continuing to invest our
monies in what we consider to be a value approach. We will continue to exercise
doubt, scrutiny, responsibility and respect in our decisions.
Thank you very much for reading this letter. Please call or email us with any
questions, comments, concerns or such.