| 26-Sep-02 | LUCENT TECHNOLOGIES, INC. | ||||||||
| FINANCIAL MODEL PROJECTIONS (GAAP) | |||||||||
| FISCAL YEARS ENDED | |||||||||
| 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | |
| TOTAL REVENUES | $12,321 | $9,857 | $10,842 | $11,927 | $13,119 | $14,431 | $15,874 | $17,462 | $19,208 |
| % Change Y-O-Y | -20.00% | 10.00% | 10.00% | 10.00% | 10.00% | 10.00% | 10.00% | 10.00% | |
| COST OF SALES | $10,769 | $7,393 | $6,939 | $7,633 | $8,396 | $9,236 | $10,160 | $11,176 | $12,293 |
| % Total Revenues | 80.00% | 75.00% | 64.00% | 64.00% | 64.00% | 64.00% | 64.00% | 64.00% | 64.00% |
| GROSS PROFIT | $1,552 | $2,464 | $3,903 | $4,294 | $4,723 | $5,195 | $5,715 | $6,286 | $6,915 |
| % Total Revenues | 12.60% | 25.00% | 36.00% | 36.00% | 36.00% | 36.00% | 36.00% | 36.00% | 36.00% |
| R & D | $2,310 | $1,380 | $1,301 | $1,431 | $1,574 | $1,732 | $1,905 | $2,095 | $2,305 |
| % Total Revenues | 18.00% | 14.00% | 12.00% | 12.00% | 12.00% | 12.00% | 12.00% | 12.00% | 12.00% |
| SG&A | $3,969 | $1,971 | $1,410 | $1,550 | $1,706 | $1,876 | $2,064 | $2,270 | $2,497 |
| % Total Revenues | 30.00% | 20.00% | 13.00% | 13.00% | 13.00% | 13.00% | 13.00% | 13.00% | 13.00% |
| TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES | $6,279 | $3,351 | $2,711 | $2,982 | $3,280 | $3,608 | $3,969 | $4,365 | $4,802 |
| % Total Revenues | 50.96% | 34.00% | 25.00% | 25.00% | 25.00% | 25.00% | 25.00% | 25.00% | 25.00% |
| RESTRUCTURING CHARGES, ETC | $2,252 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| % Total Revenues | 18.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| OPERATING INCOME (LOSS) | -$6,979 | -$887 | $1,193 | $1,312 | $1,443 | $1,587 | $1,746 | $1,921 | $2,113 |
| % Total Revenues | -56.64% | -9.00% | 11.00% | 11.00% | 11.00% | 11.00% | 11.00% | 11.00% | 11.00% |
| INTEREST EXPENSE | $382 | $350 | $350 | $300 | $300 | $300 | $300 | $250 | $250 |
| % Total Revenues | 3.10% | 3.55% | 3.23% | 2.52% | 2.29% | 2.08% | 1.89% | 1.43% | 1.30% |
| OTHER INCOME (EXPENSE) | $292 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| % Total Revenues | 2.37% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| INCOME BEFORE TAXES | -$7,069 | -$887 | $1,193 | $1,312 | $1,443 | $1,587 | $1,746 | $1,921 | $2,113 |
| % Total Revenues | -57.37% | -9.00% | 11.00% | 11.00% | 11.00% | 11.00% | 11.00% | 11.00% | 11.00% |
| TAXES | $4,757 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Tax Rate | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| NET INCOME (LOSS) FROM OPERATIONS | -$11,826 | -$887 | $1,193 | $1,312 | $1,443 | $1,587 | $1,746 | $1,921 | $2,113 |
| INCOME (LOSS) DISCONTINUED OPERATIONS | 73 | ||||||||
| % Total Revenues | 0.59% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| CONVERSION EXP REDEEMABLE P/S | -$29 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| % Total Revenues | -0.24% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| PREFERRED DIVIDENDS & ACCRETION | -$167 | $250 | $250 | $250 | $250 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| % Total Revenues | -1.36% | 2.54% | 2.31% | 2.10% | 1.91% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| NET INCOME (LOSS) | -$11,949 | -$637 | $1,443 | $1,562 | $1,693 | $1,587 | $1,746 | $1,921 | $2,113 |
| SHARES O/S | 3,427 | 3,600 | 4,700 | 4,800 | 4,900 | 5,000 | 5,100 | 5,200 | 5,300 |
| EPS | ($3.49) | ($0.18) | $0.31 | $0.33 | $0.35 | $0.32 | $0.34 | $0.37 | $0.40 |
| EPS GROWTH USING ABOVE EPS | #REF! | -94.92% | -273.44% | 6.01% | 6.19% | -8.12% | 7.84% | 7.88% | 7.92% |
| INPUT POSSIBLE PRICE / SHARE | 0.75 | 1 | 2 | 2.75 | 3 | 3.25 | 3.75 | 4.5 | 5 |
| MARKET CAP. USING ABOVE PRICE | $2,570 | $3,600 | $9,400 | $13,200 | $14,700 | $16,250 | $19,125 | $23,400 | $26,500 |
| POSSIBLE PRICE EARNINGS RATIO | -0.22 | -5.65 | 6.52 | 8.45 | 8.68 | 10.24 | 10.95 | 12.18 | 12.54 |
| PEG RATIO USING ABOVE DATA | #REF! | 0.06 | -0.02 | 1.41 | 1.40 | -1.26 | 1.40 | 1.55 | 1.58 |
| PRICE TO REVENUES USING ABOVE | 0.21 | 0.37 | 0.87 | 1.11 | 1.12 | 1.13 | 1.20 | 1.34 | 1.38 |
| PRICE / GROWTH FLOW RATIO | (0.24) | 10.01 | 3.31 | 4.25 | 4.34 | 4.70 | 5.03 | 5.60 | #DIV/0! |
| PGFR cheap = 5 | |||||||||
| PGFR normal = 11 | |||||||||
| PGFR high > 15 | |||||||||